Cincinnatus BLOG *** Political Commentary - Social Commentary

In the popular press one often reads the mantra - We have reached "peak oil" - implying that we have reached the limits of our geological reserves. That is probably not the case, what we have reached however, is geopolitical "peak oil" because inefficient national companies have pushed out private companies with the know-how to exploit existing reserves. In the 70's Western Oil companies controlled well over 50% of world oil production. Today, "BIG OIL", the combination of Exxon, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Total and Italy's Eni produce just 13% and that will probably decline over the next two decades. Today's ten largest holders of petroleum reserves are state-owned companies, like Russia's Gaspron, Iran's national oil company, Saudi Aramco and Petroleos de Venezuela. (With the possible Continue reading | 2 Comments

Transportation, specifically the automobile, will be the pivotal sector driving increased demand for oil and its substitutes over the next two decades. The developing world notably China and India, aspire to the freedom the automobile brings. Things we take for granted, such as the ability to escape the crowded city whenever we wish, to live in a green suburb and commute to work or just live a greater distance from our employment will now be come increasingly available to people in the developing world.  Per capita car ownership in China will increase to 40 cars per 1,000 citizens by 2010 from its current 24 and that is only the beginning of a steep secular trend. By contrast the United States has 765 vehicles per 1,000 and most Western European countries Continue reading | 1 Comment